Will Insurgents Re-Emerge in Iraq?

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Will Insurgents Re-Emerge in Iraq?


The Effect of Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq — by Luke N. Condra, Joseph H. Felter, Radha K. Iyengar, Jacob N. Shapiro

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The Effect of Civilian Casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq — by Luke N. Condra, Joseph H. Felter, Radha K. Iyengar, Jacob N. Shapiro

How are insurgents able to mobilize the population to fight and withhold valuable information from government forces? More specifically, what role does government mistreatment of non-combatants play? We study these questions by using uniquely-detailed micro-data from Afghanistan and Iraq to assess the impact of civilian casualties on insurgent violence. By comparing the data along temporal, spatial, and gender dimensions we are able to distinguish short-run ‘information’ and ‘capacity’ effects from the longer run ‘recruiting’ and ‘revenge’ effects. In Afghanistan we find strong evidence for a revenge effect in that local exposure to ISAF generated civilian casualties drives increased insurgent violence over the long-run. Matching districts with similar past trends in violence shows that counterinsurgent-generated civilian casualties from a typical incident are responsible for 6 additional violent incidents in an average sized district in the following 6 weeks. There is no evidence of short run effects in Afghanistan, thus ruling out the information and the capacity mechanisms. Critically, we find no evidence of a similar reaction to civilian casualties in Iraq, suggesting insurgents‘ mobilizing tools may be quite conflict-specific. Our results show that if counterinsurgent forces in Afghanistan wish to minimize insurgent recruitment, they must minimize harm to civilians despite the greater risk this entails.

Daniel J. SmithSent Via Mobile Phone
http://www.danieljosephsmith.com


Blowback: The Costs and Consequences of American Empire: The Independent Review: The Independent Institute

http://www.independent.org/publications/tir/article.asp?a=191

Daniel J. Smith
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www.danieljosephsmith.com


The New American Militarism: How Americans Are Seduced by War: The Independent Review: The Independent Institute

http://www.independent.org/publications/tir/article.asp?a=569

Daniel J. Smith
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www.danieljosephsmith.com


Strange Laws

http://www.overcomingbias.com/2010/04/strange-law.html


MARK BRADY: The Pentagon Exposed – Courtesy of the CIA?

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MARK BRADY: The Pentagon Exposed – Courtesy of the CIA?

Wikileaks reveals video showing US air crew shooting down Iraqi civilians.


All Terrorism is Local

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All Terrorism is Local


Democrats Dump Anti-War Lovers

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Democrats Dump Anti-War Lovers

HT: Dr. Adam Martin


The Government Will Do Anything to Keep Us Safe–Except End the Empire

http://reason.com/blog/2010/01/12/the-government-will-do-anythin

The handwringing about the would-be Christmas Day airplane bomber and the politicians’ tiresome declarations that it will never happen again miss the point: As long as the U.S. government pursues its imperial program of invasion, regime change, occupation, and sponsorship of corrupt governments in the Muslim world, Americans will be targets for avengers….It’s either foreign intervention and retaliatory terrorism or nonintervention and security. There’s no third way….Every empire has reaped a terrorist whirlwind. “Terror” is the tactic that the weak use against the strong. The U.S. government unleashes the most powerful “conventional” weapons known to man, including pilotless killer drones operated like videogames thousands of miles away. Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab sewed an explosive into his underwear and ended up burning himself.

http://www.fff.org/comment/com1001d.asp


Robert Higgs: Troop surge in Afghanistan is a losing investment

http://www.sfexaminer.com/opinion/columns/oped_contributors/Troop-surge-in-Afghanistan-is-a-losing-investment–78658287.html


Was the Iraq War Worth It?

http://jeffreymiron.blogspot.com/2009/11/was-iraq-war-worth-it.html


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